- Sebastjan Bele
- Updated: December 11, 2025
- Reading time: 6 min
FED 25BPS Cut, BTC Drops to $90K & No MiCA in Poland
Bitcoin rallied to $94K at the start of the week, but surprisingly slipped to $90K after the Federal Reserve announced a twenty five basis point rate cut. Ethereum pushed to $3430, failed to break monthly resistance, and is now trading near $3200.
In other news, Tom Lee’s BitMine reportedly added one hundred and twelve million dollars worth of ETH to its treasury, and Vitalik Buterin proposed a trustless onchain gas futures market to help users hedge against future transaction fees. MetaMask integrated Polymarket into its mobile app, increasing retail access to prediction markets.
On the policy front, SEC Chair Atkins signaled faster movement on crypto priorities in the coming year, while Gemini received CFTC approval for its prediction market and may expand into crypto futures, options and perps. BlackRock filed for a staked Ethereum ETF, and Poland became the EU’s lone MiCA holdout after parliament failed to overturn the veto on its crypto bill.
News
- Bitcoin and Ether whipsaw after Fed quarter point hawkish cut
- Poland becomes EU’s lone MiCA holdout after parliament fails to overturn veto on crypto bill
- BlackRock moves to add staked Ethereum ETF with fresh SEC filing
- Gemini wins CFTC approval for prediction market, may expand into crypto futures, options and perps
- Vitalik Buterin pushes for trustless gas futures market to hedge Ethereum fees, sparking debate
- Tom Lee’s BitMine adds another $112M of ETH to its treasury
- MetaMask moves into prediction markets with Polymarket integration
- SEC Chair Atkins signals crypto priorities in the new year
- American Bitcoin adds another $38M of BTC as total holdings rise to 4,783 BTC
- HashKey files for Hong Kong IPO as city’s first listed crypto exchange
Table of Contents
Markets
Best Performers
Modest gains across the board, with Zcash ($ZEC) leading the pack as the privacy narrative continues to trend. MemeCore ($M), OKB ($OKB), Mantle ($MNT) and Tether Gold ($XAUt) also posted small but steady weekly increases.
Sector Performance
According to GMCI, the GMCI 30, which tracks the top 30 cryptocurrencies, is down 4.12% over the past week. The GMCI Mid Cap is down 10.12%, while GMCI Small Cap indices posted a loss of 9.07%. The rest of the sectors:
- Layer 1: -3.92%
- Layer 2: –4.40%
- DeFi: -11.27%
- AI: -10.86%
- Gaming: -7.54%
- Meme: –7.71%
US Spot ETF Balances
US Bitcoin Spot ETFs
Total Assets Under Management (AUM) = $124.47 Billion
Weekly Inflows = $790 Million
US Ethereum Spot ETFs
Total Assets Under Management (AUM) = $18.30 Billion
Weekly Inflows = $480 Million
*The data for BTC / ETH ETFs can vary, so we use Coinglass as our source.
Market Commentary
Bitcoin
$BTC broke above weekly resistance but failed to confirm it as support. Price action remains choppy, with both longs and shorts getting liquidated. On the daily timeframe, momentum was turning bullish, but the latest lower high threatens that structure. A lower low would confirm short term bearish momentum. Additionally, the weekly candle is shaping into a shooting star, which is typically a bearish reversal signal.
Given the indecision, it is a tough environment to position. We wait for one of two clear signals:
- Reclaiming weekly resistance at $92K which would open up bullish continuation.
- Retesting monthly support at $82K which would define the bearish scenario.
Ethereum
$ETH was clearly rejected from the monthly resistance at $3400 and is now trading in the middle of the range between that level and the weekly support at $2900. The market remains choppy and lacks clear direction.
This is another wait and see setup with no need to rush into positioning. Two scenarios matter:
- A bullish break and reclaim of $3400, turning monthly resistance into support
- A test of weekly support around $2920, where we watch to see if buyers defend the level
Bitcoin dominance remains the steady at 58.6 (-0.1% weekly).
In traditional markets:
- S&P 500 up 0.20%
- NASDAQ up 0.71%
- Gold up 0.28%
The total crypto market cap stands at $3.07 trillion, down 3.46% from $3.18 trillion. The Fear & Greed Index is at 29 (Fear), a slight improvement from last week’s 26 (Fear), but sentiment still remains uncertain.
What's Next?
Following the Fed’s 25bps cut, the market reacted negatively and pulled back. Funding rates are hovering around zero or turning negative, signalling that positioning is skewed short. Leverage has been flushed out and reset, which creates a healthier market structure with less vulnerability to sharp drawdowns.
Right now the market is consolidating and waiting for real conviction in either direction. As highlighted in previous editions, the core issue remains unchanged: there is still no fresh liquidity entering the system, making it difficult for rallies to become strong or sustained.
Instead, flows are concentrating in two extremes:
- Low risk opportunities such as yields, delta neutral strategies, and cash-and-carry trades
- Short-lived speculative bursts that rotate quickly across narratives
The middle ground, where broad-based risk appetite lifts the entire market, is currently missing.
Meme of the Week
We hope you enjoyed this week’s edition of Diary of a Market Maker! Stay tuned for more insights, updates, and market-moving highlights as we continue to keep you informed and entertained in the ever-evolving world of crypto.
In the meantime, follow us on LinkedIn and X (Twitter) for real-time updates and more!
Until next time, happy trading and stay ahead of the curve!
Disclaimer: The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. All opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of any entity with which the author may be associated. Investing in financial markets involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. Readers should perform their own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Jakob Brezigar
Jakob, an experienced specialist in the field of cryptocurrency market making, boasts an extensive international presence. With Orcabay, he has skillfully managed major operations and deals for a wide array of global stakeholders.
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